Democrats are currently leading Republicans in the RealClearPolling generic congressional average
A blue wave may not be as certain as some polls have predicted, experts warn ahead of Election Day, noting forecasts may be skewed because Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
While current polls paint a positive picture for Democrats ahead of the midterms this November 3 — some pollsters are questioning whether that number may be inflated due to supporters of President Donald Trump being difficult to reach by pollsters, Axios reported.
Polls previously underestimated Trump’s support during the presidential races in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even though midterm polling is typically more accurate, some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center, told Axios.
Vote as though your life depends on it, because it fucking does!
In a universe where Donald can win two elections literally anything is possible. His supporters would vote for a wet fart if it was directed at a minority.
No matter what happens, 46+% will not believe it.
Turnout is all that matters, and polls anticipate turnout/motivation.
Always be voting for lesser evil! Rural people get luxury gay space communism voting lines. Seniors/evangelicals always turn out. You better believe that evangelicals hold their nose when they vote for Trump, but Armageddon and Israel worship is part of their programming. If you be voting, then your opinions will matter in the future. If not, then you will be safely ignored, because lemme nazis will remind you the only time politics matter to you, that DNC is shit.
Seniors now have -21 net approval of Trump down 24 from Oct 24. They may vote against him.
Rural voters overall have -20 net approval. Down 40 from Oct 24. Rural Republicans still net positive, but 26% disapprove of Trump, and 60% disapprove of Iran war related energy costs. There will be some flips from former, and more abstains from latter.
Show the fuck up. Protest DNC the next day, and organize next primaries or 3rd party.
I don’t think the polls are accounting for all the Republican and Trump voters that simply won’t show up this year. I’ve talked to many that voted for Trump who said to me they ain’t either voting ever again or not this time around.
If they tell the pollsters the same thing, their “likely voter” models pick that up. This is by far record low net approval rates for a President heading to mid terms. Senate needed to stop shenaremovedns.
There are still way too many people who thing republicans are decent people. Maybe it’s because your mother or father is a republican, but that doesn’t make republicans good it makes your parents horrible.
I live in rural Ohio, the number of signs that are proudly Republican is too damn high.
I’m always amazed, it’ll just be some guys name and then “REPUBLICAN” and that’s the whole sign, like it’s a good thing.
I know, I talk to a few people who say their parents are “true conservatives” that voted Republican but hate donnie and didn’t vote for him (allegedly).
SMH. What the fuck even is a “true conservative”? Just sounds like No True Scotsman stuff.
My optimism for the midterms are bigger than the sun, and smaller than a grain of rice at the same time.
Leave it to Democrats to fuck up a cost of living mid term with high gas prices and a president in the low 30s approval rating.
This should be the biggest blow out this century.
propaganda works on uneducated people
Nobody is immune. You’re being constantly bombarded and you’re not catching all of it.
there’s no such thing as immune to ideas
there is definitely an inverse correlation between education and voting against your own interests though
Sure, I just want to point out to readers that thoughts like “well it can’t happen to ME” or “they can’t mean ME because I have a degree” is wrong. Education will not shield a person, propaganda doesn’t work exclusively on the uneducated. It was meant more as a cautionary addition to your comment than a retort.
that is fair
Oligarchs are the source of the problem. Citizens United means more money supporting the fascists, and control of almost every media outlet means outright fascist propaganda on the "conservative’ networks, and minimized support for progressives on the “liberal” networks.
Establishment Democrats still give us better returns on human rights compared to the fascists, but they do bow to their oligarchal masters pretty well, yes.
The point is that progressives definitely do not have a majority in the US, much less the supermajority needed to squash fascism.
It’s up to us to deal with our oligarchs and go from there.
It should, but we are surrounded with deeply stupid people stewing in a shit-ton of conservative propaganda.
all those in PA remember one thing. If you vote for Frank Pastella and the rest of the republicans, you vote to let Pastella rape your kids. Vote no to Republikkkans like Frank Pastella to keep their dicks outside of your children’s bodies.
It never is I wish this shit would stop because it makes people complacent and is actual bullshit. Also paired with the fact I’ve heard this before and it has been an absolute disaster. Don’t listen to the media just vote Dem so we don’t all get gassed in fucking ovens and if you think that is hyperbole you’re a fucking idiot.
The last two DNC picks who lost seemed like they had it in the bag. They also talked about Trump more than they did their own policy.
They’re running the same strategy again.
Cool story, go vote.
That’s the moral of the story here. We each control one vote and this is arguably our most important vote in history.
Seems like every vote is the most important vote of my life. I’m getting tired of it.
What’s that emoji for when a comment makes you laugh then it hits and you kinda get a tear but are also mad at the system but also are tired?
Me too.
Well when you’ve been trained that voting anything but Republican means you’ve turned your back to God…
Also a whole lot of men view voting Democratic the same way they view eating plant-based foods. They think it’ll turn them into women or something.
It’s awfully telling that that’s a scary thing for them. They don’t want to be sentenced to being treated the way that they treat women. They don’t want to be “inferior” people. It’s also why they’re so transphobic. They can’t understand why anybody would ever want to give up being a man to become a woman, so they must be getting something out of it, like probably an unfair advantage in sports or to look at women in locker rooms or something. They’re incapable of really empathizing with anybody whose life experience is different from theirs, even just with people who are still white and cis and hetero, but are women. So non-white and/or non-cis and/or non-hetero just absolutely does not compute. They think that their simple, privileged, suburban or rural experience is what 95% of the country is.
The fear of being similar to a woman drives so much of the manosphere. Looking back on things like Gamergate, it’s very easy to see how many angry young men there were - driven to complete frothing rage because of a woman journalist? I mean, what the fuck are we even doing here?
But I do think some of it is pretty easy to see - lots of fragile men who no longer do “real jobs”, if they have regular employment at all, and in many cases, they have less education than their female peers. Also, women are not as dependent on them, financially, and so the dating scene seems out of balance to the historic “norm” they think it should be.
So they resort to all this stupid performative nonsense - and it really is nonsense - performative meat-eating, preparation of meat (smokers, barbeques, grills, etc.) and talking about “protein” all the time is one of the strongest indicators of just how stupid things have become. It serves as a fantastic proxy for a lot of it, if you ask me. Of course, it tends to cluster with other stupid behaviors like driving enormous vehicles modified to “roll coal” on other drivers, bikers, pedestrians, etc. Oh, and of course, performative gun ownership and voting Republican…
This is supposed to be masculine? Do they know the most petite, fragile and girly of women can do all these things, too?
Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.
Well, that’s because they can’t read, are too poorly educated to obtain a proper job to afford communication utilities, and/or stubborn. Majority of them are just pedophile criminal racists and enjoy their leaders being the same.
Calling the majority of any large sample size pedophiles is quite the stretch.
It’s the shy voter effect. When politicians are unpopular, people don’t like to admit to supporting them. In most historical cases, this correlates with low turnout, so the effects on polling tend to cancel out. When Trump has been on the ballot, this correlation hasn’t held up the same way, and polling has slightly underestimated MAGA turnout.
Basically it depends on how “real” you think Trump’s unpopularity actually is. Are these people done with him, or just annoyed enough not to talk to pollsters?
Trump supporters are also less likely to show up for a midterm, but they conveniently left that truth out of their clickbait.
Their poopy leader has strongly rigged the election seven ways from Sunday.
While that might be true, I’m concerned that a lot of them are cowards, too cowardly to admit to pollsters that they’re still gonna vote for Republicans, too cowardly to even research what Democrats and independents are offering, and too cowardly to ever break their routine of showing up to vote for Republicans every time.
If the narrative becomes too one sided it might discourage flakey voters. One reason why every election cycle has to be life and death
I’ll take it if it scares more people to go out and vote. Never assume anything is in the bag
I’m not assuming we’ll win but I also don’t believe that fearmongering works well on Dem voters. I saw a study a while back that showed that Dem and independent voters respond much more strongly to positive messaging than negative messaging. So I really don’t buy that scaring and stressing people out works.
Probably why we see so much “Democrats in disarray” messaging being pushed.
Also, all the trying to drive a wedge into the coalition by constantly talking about trans and how Democrats are “throwing them under the bus” and are “transphobic”, etc. This is why the cons constantly pivot to talking about “men in women’s sports” bullshit, too.
It’s all to drive down the vote for Democrats and blunt the force of the blue wave.
I’m fine with a multiprong assault for this, fearmongering to get those that works on to show up, while the candidates themselves provide positive messaging, doesnt seem like those have to be mutually exclusive
What I hate is that some voters seemingly want to vote with the winning “team”. It’s just as idiotic as it sounds, but I do think some people don’t want to vote Democratic if they hear they might not win.
I fear we’re going to see another historical percentage of people abstain from voting.
Despite the way online conversation goes, we haven’t really seen historically low voter participation rates. In fact, looking at the data for recent years we have actually seen fairly consistently higher percentage than historic rates by a little bit.
Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats in the House, which would give the party a narrow majority. In the Senate, Cook predicts a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats would need four seats to take control of the chamber.
The current DNC chair is gonna run a fair presidential primary in less than two years…
No matter what happens the neoliberals will say midterms could have been better and Martin needs to resign. Because neoliberals have no chance in hell of winning a fair primary.
And if we get a progressive in 2028 into the White House, they pick the next DNC chair in 2029.
We’re on the cusp of some real FDR shit, but neoliberals (as always) will do anything including helping Republicans to stop it.
You’ve been saying this so often and for so long that I’m really curious to see how you’re going to try and spin it when the DNC fucks over progressives like they always do. Ken Martin is like the second coming of Jesus to you for some reason.
I bet you’ve never once looked up a bill and checked out the votes to see how Republicans blocked so many of them because the Democrats didn’t have enough of a voting majority.
Do you know why the Public Option was removed from the Affordable Care Act? Because Democrats needed 60 votes, and there were only 58 Democrats elected to the Senate, with 2 Independents voting with them… 60 exactly - this gave extraordinary power to any Democrat who was against the public option (Joe Lieberman and 5 others). If 6 or more extra Democrats had been elected, the Lieberman 6 votes would have had no power. Or if just 6 Republicans out of the 40 had voted with the Democrats. Ha.
And in the end, I always see people blaming the Democrats, not the Republicans. Because nobody looks at the actual bills and how they are gutted or defeated because the people won’t elect enough Dems to counter the Rep opposition. Shrug.
Progressive policies aren’t popular in the states.
Liberal ones are.
Can you give me the top 5 most popular liberal policies?
Progressive taxation. Affordable Universal Healthcare. Public Infrastructure and Education. Reproductive rights for women. Voting rights. Providing a social safety net. Climate change. Regulating industrial pollution. Firearms regulation. Need any more?
And can you name some progressive policies That are being pushed but people aren’t receptive to?
The differences are in implementation, not in goals.
Take affordable universal health care for instance. The progressive position is Medicare for All. The Liberal position is taxing and regulating health insurance companies to force them to cover everyone, and force everyone to buy health insurance.
I guess that must be why progressive candidates pushed out a bunch of liberal incumbents in the primaries.
Yeah in New York and California.
The left are going to ride the optimistic polls right into another “surprising” defeat because they’ll convince each other they don’t have to bother getting off their fat asses and going out to vote.
It’s the slacktivist way.
