cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/54245880
The U.S. war with Iran has raised fossil fuel prices so much that the resulting drop in oil demand has put the world on track to see a rare dip in carbon emissions from these sources in 2026.
Between 2019 and 2025, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels grew by about 0.8 percent annually, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. But 2026 is set to buck that trend: high oil prices, as well as the continued rise of green technology—solar power, wind and electric cars—will cause a “short-term” 0.4 percent drop, according to the study.
“The high petrol prices following the war in Iran are reducing oil use and keeping emissions low,” says the study’s lead author Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia in England. “But that’s not the whole story: The expansion of renewable energy has progressed a lot in recent years, led by China. And [along with electric vehicles], this is offsetting two thirds of the growing demand for energy.”
With all sources of carbon considered, including deforestation, total global CO2 emissions are set to continue increasing.
So incompetent he even fails at killing clean energy
That’s not really surprising. Prices are up because supply is down. There is basically less oil products available to burn.
There’s no shortage of oil or oil products tbh. It’s just less plentiful than it usually is, and transporting it out of the gulf is quite costly right now, need to pay a lot of danger fees to the ship crews and there are expensive insurance policies that you pay for literally by the hour apparently (because when you’re insuring 100 mill worth of crude + a ship and crew in a warzone, well, that insurance is pretty costly).
Rather, people are burning less because prices are up.
Dont forget demand destruction, I finally bought an electric car this year after years of putting it off. Since the oil companies jacked up their prices in response to a war for which they supported the very candidate who caused it, I said enough is enough. Hopefully I will never buy gas again in my life.
Technology connections pitches electric cars I think in the way that speaks to many more people than the usual environment pitch. Basically " wouldn’t you want energy independence?"
Its a little depressing that it’s the only argument that has a chance on most people. Killing millions? Don’t care. Saving a bit of money? Ohh yeah!
I’m actually surprised he didn’t bring up how the regular maintenance on an EV is non-existent; it’s a lot less hassle. There’s no regular oil changes, for example. Even your brakes can last longer if you’re good at single-pedal mode.
If you work with any kind of machinery the reliability of modern ice vehicles is crazy good. People treat them like shit often and they still go. Lots of other machinery has maintenance schedules in single digit hours.
I hope that for you too. Luckily, I live near very good public trans, so for me, an e-scooter’s really all I need.
I mean we as a society have to ask, would we accept this level of insane fluctuation from anything else we buy? If you went to the store one day and bread was $2 bux a loaf, then you go again 3 days later and its $17, then a few days later is $9… Society would collectively say get your shit together on pricing! And we’d never buy bread again.
Well now Im never buying gas again. And its their own fault.
Well that’s a double edged sword. There’s so much fluctuation in part because it’s such a ubiquitous commodity, availability is high and margins are low.
If branding mattered more (like with groceries) then prices would be more stable (but higher).
But as it is, nobody cares that much what brand of gas they get, it’s just gas. A name brand can’t demand a higher price just because it’s a name brand, nobody cares.
Society would collectively say get your shit together on pricing! And we’d never buy bread again.
I mean, prices at the pump aren’t fluctuating that much, but I do get your meaning. That said, in general people don’t really have much of a choice when it comes to food, we have to eat. I mean, do you remember how eggs surged in price during the pandemic years? People still bought them, it just sucked. Oh we complained about it alright! But we as a society didn’t do anything
Fuel prices went up a lot but the price swings are still nowhere near the example prices you gave there…
It went from 1,5 - 1,6 € per litre to about 2,5 € per litre here, not from 1,5 to 9. And the changes are happening, people are buying more electric cars and home batteries+solar is growing very rapidly… So no, people are not accepting it, despite the price increase still being manageable (and price still being rather steady, it basically just swung up quickly at the Iran fiasco and then plateau there)
It’s a nice thought, but presumably (based on geography) you might be able to live with lower gas consumption. At least here in the US, it’s wholly possible that you only have one place to acquire groceries where you live.
The only real way to fight climate change is to make fossil fuels more expensive than alternatives. The vast majority won’t do it for environmental reasons.
I don’t get it. I live in Texas and even with the brain dead $300 registration fee tacked on for EVs and the significantly cheaper gas prices compared to the rest of the US, it’s still multiple factors of cheaper to drive an EV.
I bought a 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV. Even with excessive use charges from the electric company and the $300 annual registration spread out over 12 months, I spend around 1/3 to 1/2 of what my Prius cost in gas I had before this vehicle. And that was a PRIUS. I’m also not counting maintenance/repair items that only apply to a gas vehicle, like the head gasket it blew up, or the oil changes, or the coil pack that died in it…
I used 375 kWh last month. My electric rate is $0.075 per kWh until I use more than 400 kWh in a month. Then it goes to $0.096. Even assuming that all of my charging was at the higher rate, that’s $61 for the entire month of driving, if I break out the $300 annual fee across all 12 months. To drive the same ~1500 in my Prius V that got 38MPG on average between city and highway (according to the dash), that cost around $162 per month. And that’s in Texas, where gas is $3.25 a gallon right now. This is essentially worst case scenario for an EV, given all of the things against it, and it’s still barely above 1/3 of the cost.
Imagine someone coming from a fully gas SUV, in a state where gas is more expensive, where the registration fee isn’t 3x of the income of gas taxes, etc. It would blow that person’s mind that, instead of paying $50-60 per fill up one to two times a week, they could drive an EV for that much FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH.
The only green that a lot of people think about is money.
It’s really absurd that we are still subsidizing fossil fuels rather than increasing the tax rates on them.
While I agree, it has to be done very carefully. Like, keep up with inflation with an extra cent or two on top, careful. The cost of petroleum is factored into everything due to transportation, so any change is felt practically everywhere by everyone.
Same thing for subsidizing cow milk instead of taxing it, and making the alternatives be cheaper, because they are.
well france tried that and people rioted. Trump (unintentionally) made gas prices skyrocket and just caused one of the most lopsided elections in modern US history. Asking middle and especially lower class people to pay more for energy, even just in the short term, runs the risk of turning them against eco-conscious legislation.
So I think a better strategy is just more incentives and funding for clean energy.
Yeah, if we could have been building out the renewable energy infrastructure since 2021 like we needed to be doing, then by now it could already be a viable enough alternative that we would be able to end fossil fuel subsidies without too many people feeling the pinch, and even the stragglers would climb on board the green energy express shortly after. At that point it would be time to start ramping up taxes on fossil fuels to disincentivize it for the billionaires who would be insulated from the original price jumps.
But no, fucken Joe Manchin had to side with republicans on blocking the original Green New Deal so that we ended up with a fucking neutered compromise.
So now we have two roads in front of us: we can start building the renewable energy infrastructure and converting the grid. Or we can continue feeling the squeeze tighter and tighter each year until the price of oil is the least of our worries as food and water become scarcer and scarcer.
Choose wisely!
Asking middle and especially lower class people to pay more for energy, even just in the short term, runs the risk of turning them against eco-conscious legislation.
It’s not just about the ones that can’t afford to pay more for the energy, there also usually isn’t a viable alternative available for them to even look at moving toward instead. It’s one thing to make a decision pay more for convenience, if you have another option. If there is no other option, you just feel like you’re getting personally fucked.
In the US, all of the public transit infrastructure outside of like 4 major cities is dogshit. There may be a bus, that doesn’t go everywhere, runs at odd times, and is poorly maintained. Technically available, but if you need to travel across town to work, takes 3 hours one way to do so through 2 different transfer stations. And since everything was built around personal vehicles, things are also not within walking distance even if you are lucky enough to work from home or have something closer.
Having a car is a necessity for most of the country. Without having viable alternatives, increased fuel prices aren’t going to actually fix anything, just turn people even more against any changes.
This is why things like EVs are a good middle ground with the current lack of public infrastructure available nationwide. It’s an easy drop in replacement that’s a better ongoing option, with a side effect of also costing less to maintain along the way.
There usually is an alternative. I watch people richer than me, using more energy, complaining about the costs and how much they are struggling… Just don’t use all that energy then. But they won’t.
But that conversation seems to be impossible. They just say they NEED it. I don’t think they care, even the slightest inconvenience is too much.
Its not just energy, its almost every expense in modern life. Overconsumption won’t bring you happiness, working longer to buy more stuff isn’t going to improve your life.
agreed, and a lot of people have no choice for the fuel used to power their domiciles. If you want solar you have to own your home, not have a restrictive HOA, and have the cash (or credit rating for a decent loan) to fund it.
Trump (unintentionally) made gas prices skyrocket and just caused one of the most lopsided elections in modern US history.
To be honest, there is a massive difference between prices going up because of taxes and going up because someone started a stupid war and told everyone costs were going down.
I’m not sure I agree, I don’t think most people consider the causes that deeply. That’s how we ended up with trump in the first palce.
Do you think all of the people who flipped blue really care about the war? They certainly didn’t before gas prices went up.
I said they noticed prices first and they probably wouldn’t care about the war otherwise.
Yep, massive expansion of solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and maybe nuclear power for some base load in combination with large amounts of battery capacity is the way to go. General enforcement of electrification is needed. Every instance where hydrocarbons are simply used for their energy content instead of their chemical properties has to be replaced by the grid (outside of emergency measures). I am sure that this would be more than enough to get global emissions under control, and would also lead to more geopolitical stability.
Canada tried that and voters revolted. Very few people actually give a single fuck about C02 levels.
We still have corporate carbon taxes in effect, for now. I know there were talks about carving out exceptions for certain provinces that were hit hard by them but I haven’t kept up on that thread.
Cut the subsidies they get, and put an environmental tax on its use. The problem is a lot of that will be passed to consumers and it will hit individuals more, so once again large companies won’t notice.
That’s the point though. When they pass the costs on to consumers, we significantly reduce our fossil fuel usage, and actively seek out alternatives.
I’m sure all of the poor people would take the bus if we had any buses.
True enough, if they can change. Not everyone can buy a replacement EV or put up some solar panels, they just have to use the same things they have now at a higher cost. The transition is the issue, and a transition without a way to help those hit hardest will hurt. But you’re right, demand goes down either way.
Sadly we used to have a carbon tax, but we had to appease the morons.
Creating carbon credits didn’t help. Traded like baseball cards, or more often “lost” in the shuffling around of buying more carbon producing time.
Yeah it’s a shame the most effective way used so much violence. It would be nice if we could just protest it away but sadly only the more radical solutions actually work in the end. Luckily we’re all the bigger person so none of us would do the violent thing. Let’s look at our heros for what to do in these situations. All those posters talked about Malcom X at school I wonder what he would do?
IIRC this type of thing happened during COVID too when everyone worked from home.
Correct.
It also happened in 2008 after the housing crash. One of the first things people cut out when things get tough is travel, which for most is an unnecessary luxury.
Bummer that it never sticks.
So far, the only things that made global pollution reduce are economic crisis
Well yeah, the Americans always run such a low debt to GDP ratio they can just issue more–oh, wait…
Joking aside, this round may be a bit more interesting
Don’t worry – Anthropic has a plan for that!
Donald Trump: more successful environmentalist than Greta Thunberg. No one had that on their 2026 bingo card.
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What’s ironic about Donald is that the most positive aspects of both of his presidencies were purely accidental. We got out of Syria and Afghanistan, in part, because he wanted to spite Democrats.
Republicans actually gave out more COVID aid than Democrats, in part, because Donald wanted to be able to say he had and pretend he’d personally given Americans a check by branding it with his name. (Granted, wasn’t that much more, but still.)
I spent 1 month’s fuel expense on an electric scooter and use that to run errands in our awkward town. It’s not a city or setup well for scooters, but I’m willing to bet it’s paying for itself pretty quickly! Quick trips to the grocery store for things here and there are worth it!
Now if only I worked closer than 12 miles, and winter wasn’t approaching! 😅
I became an e-scooter guy in June, and thanks to electrical costs, not only has it already paid for itself, but I’m actually saving a ton of money being out of the house more and just consuming less electric overall.
Plus it’s fun.
I bought a 2014 Chevy Volt in March and work <15 miles from my home. I’ve added gas 3x this year and have half a tank still.
It’s paid for itself already. Stoked.
That’s glorious.
I like bikes because you can haul a lot on them, but either is better than a car.
My ebike replaced my car years ago. I still have it but rarely drive it.
One thing about the squeeze is eventually the world finds a way to subsist without it or with substantially less.
For a large number of uses we already have alternatives. They’re just being actively fought by the wealthy as it doesn’t maximize their profit.
For power grids sodium batteries and solar are viable. For transport we could focus on much more efficient systems than long haul trucking, such as electrified rail. For many manufactured items we simply don’t need them or can replace the oil used with other things, but again doesn’t maximize profit
Finally
thanks to Hegseth, the climate activist
based eco-warrior Iran, wayyyy more effective than spraying some catsup on some Van Gogh
Just stop oil changed plans and bombing refineries in russia sounded a bit more extreme than gluing to streets but boy, it’s effective.
