Trumpcession
Brought to you by dipshit conservatives and non-voters.
A CHOSEN recession. This truly is the dumbest timeline.
Trade wars could cause countries to “go back to being insular,” Bhatia said, which could cultivate “spurts of patriotism that translate into people spending more locally in their own nation.”
Consumer spending on goods and services account for around two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product. There is therefore is a “high probability” that a tariff-induced increase in domestic expenditure will cause the country’s GDP to “do better than you anticipate,” Bhatia said.
None of that sounds all that bad, to me, but Americans have gotten very used to buying cheap goods imported from foreign countries where labor and other costs are much lower. The whole point of tariffs is to make those foreign made goods more expensive so that American made goods can better compete with them on price, but that doesn’t result in things getting less expensive for consumers (or producers, for that matter, since they’ve also gotten used to cheap, foreign made parts and components). Prices will go up, and if they go up too much American consumers might stop buying.
Or will they? Americans be shoppin’, and I’m not sure how high prices would have to go for them to stop. I don’t know where people get the money to just keep consuming, but they do, somehow.
Edit: I think there is the threat of American producers trying to keep prices from going up too much by finding ways to suppress wages for workers and by just making products crappier, since their primary focus will be squeezing every possible penny of profit out of every sale.
I think there is the threat of American producers trying to keep prices from going up too much by finding ways to suppress wages for workers and by just making products crappier, since their primary focus will be squeezing every possible penny of profit out of every sale.
America never had good labour laws, and the anti-union propaganda has created generations who don’t know why unions were created in the first place. I don’t see this ending well for American labour.
Donnie doesn’t have a stable policy, and the immediacy of the tariffs simply will result in higher prices. Farmers can’t go back in time and plant alternate crops - the imports are necessary. Steel plants can’t just re-tool for a product that used to come from Brazil or Canada overnight. If the goal is to bring back the jobs, companies need time to adjust and plan and invest.
Donnie doesn’t have a stable policy
That seems to be the case.
All of you will suffer, but it is your necessary sacrifice thru which I may delight
Rolling back a few years to an earlier Trump campaign, a select quote:
https://401kspecialistmag.com/how-trumps-401k-performance-compares-to-presidential-predecessors/
“If for some reason I wouldn’t have won the [2016] election, these markets would have crashed. That’ll happen even more so in 2020,” Trump told a rally-goers in New Hampshire last week. “See, the bottom line is… You have no choice but to vote for me because your 401k, everything is going to be down the tubes. So, whether you love me or hate me, you’ve got to vote for me.”
I thought Q1 already was pretty sure to be negative? So if Q2 is too that’s technically a recession.
Anyways it seems to me that’s the direction the arrows are pointing.Trump is causing so much disruption, that there’s no way it doesn’t put a heavy damper on investments. Investors hate uncertainty above all. And lack of investments cause recessions, so I would have thought the likelihood was higher.
