Now, with Russian talks on the way, unverified and sourceless rumors spread on social media that the president was planning to withdraw from NATO.
Now, with Russian talks on the way, unverified and sourceless rumors spread on social media that the president was planning to withdraw from NATO.
Newsweek speculating on what “unverified and sourceless rumors” might be about.
Quality journalism.
I mean Newsweek has been a tabloid for a while (if they were ever a reputable journal to begin with)
I know. This is real rock bottom stuff though.
Fair enough.
I mean, there are sources there. It’s just…not people who would have current, inside information. John Bolton hasn’t been in government since he was National Security Advisor under Trump in Trump’s first term and the two fell out. He’s been asserting that Trump doesn’t like NATO or alliances at all for some time, though, based on his interactions with Trump in Term 1.
kagis
Here’s him in 2022, back before he expected Trump to actually make it into a second term:
https://www.businessinsider.com/bolton-putin-waiting-for-trump-to-withdraw-from-nato-in-2nd-term-2022-3
EDIT: It’d actually be interesting to see whether Trump can withdraw from NATO. Remarkably-enough, this is a part of American constitutional law that has never been legally-resolved: does the President, acting solo, have the ability to terminate a ratified treaty without action from Congress?
The question was raised with SCOTUS in Goldwater v. Carter, but that case was dismissed on a technicality, so we don’t really have a ruling on the matter.
To enter into a treaty, like NATO, the Senate’s approval is required. So it does seem reasonable to me that going to the Senate should be required to exit a treaty. But…we haven’t actually established what the rule there is, even after nearly two-and-a-half centuries of being a country.
EDIT2: The UK recently had to fight out a similar question over Brexit in their Supreme Court: could the Prime Minister, without action from Parliament, withdraw from the European Union?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(Miller)_v_Secretary_of_State_for_Exiting_the_European_Union
In that case, their Supreme Court ruled no, that the Prime Minister couldn’t singlehandedly leave the European Union, had to go back to Parliament.
EDIT3: I’d also add that I am dubious that Trump would leave NATO, even if Europe refuses to spend another cent on defense. I do think that he would potentially retaliate in other ways. I think that most policymakers in the US want the US in NATO – but that there is a lot of agreement on Europe and defense spending and that the US has been ignored for a long time on the matter.
EDIT4: In the hypothetical that the US did leave NATO, it could theoretically rejoin under a more-sympathetic administration, but there would be two obstacles.
The US Senate. The US has a very high bar for entering into treaties compared to most countries – a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate, plus the President. There is a reason that the US is not party to some important treaties that many other countries are party to (no ratification approval from the Senate) but still is a signatory to the treaty and acts as if it is a member, like UNCLOS. So it’d require a supermajority in the Senate to rejoin. And for NATO, “pretending to be in” doesn’t really have the same effect – under UNSC rules, war is legal, whether or not the UNSC is onboard, as long as it’s defensive and the justification is actual membership in a collective security arrangement. That is, normally a country isn’t supposed to go to war without UNSC approval (on which Russia has a veto which it would probably use) unless it is in defense of itself or an allied member who has been attacked. While the US probably has the practical ability to go to war without UNSC approval if it really, really wants to – who would stop it? – and has certainly come up with rather tortured legal justifications in the past when it couldn’t get explicit UNSC sign-off (e.g. the Iraq War), it does establish political and legal barriers. In the past, the US has not shown a lot of willingness to enter into major direct conflict in Europe without a treaty commitment – like, say, Ukraine or Finland in the Winter War. That being said, the US did enter the Korean War without a treaty commitment, so…shrugs.
Other NATO members. This requires unanimity among all NATO members. If you remember how difficult it was to get NATO approval for Finland and Sweden, the bar is the same for the US…but the impact of the US being in or out is a whole lot more consequential than Finland or Sweden being in or out. I mean, if I were the Kremlin and decided upon a confrontation path, I would pull pretty much any lever available to me to ensure that at least one member did not approve the US re-entering.
Congratulations on that essay, but none of that has anything to do with my point about the article.