As a Finn I say this is fine. Every military resource that is tied down and not raping and destroying Ukraine is net positive.
Finland is NATO. He’ll NEVER invade Finland. Have fun dividing up your oh so great, properly trained and well equipped army haha! Not like he’ll need the troops in Ukraine, that war is going as smooth AF.
I feel like he’s doing this just to threaten the troops on the front line with somewhere colder
Loads of forest up north. I’d prefer a camp fire over gunfire. Just make sure to bring your own axe.
Finns camp in such conditions voluntarily. Russians probably do too, lol. In fact, many Russians in that particular area of Russia are a lot more like Finns than they are like Russians. In fact, they are being repressed, and their language and culture is being systematically erased. If we are playing by Russian rules, this means Finland just has to step in, to uphold the human rights of the Finnic peoples living in this area.
I get your point. However, within a military it’s not like you’re stationed where you are originally from. So, most military left right now are the minorities from the east, or at least, they are drafted and sent to the front an mass. Except maybe for the officers not going to the front. But then again, they aren’t stationed where they are from, but where the regime requires them to be. I bet the minorities living in Russia close to Finland won’t feel much support for the regime, unless they too are too much brainwashed by the propaganda. But in general, the minorities often prefer to separate from Russia completely.
I’ve been making the same argument about the Han population of the Vladivostok Oblast for a while now. Xi actually has a lot to gain there, and no one outside of Russia would bat an eye.
etuomaala
Wow, I can’t believe you’re making me root for a Chinese invasion of Vladivostok. You know what though? At this point, fuck it. Go right ahead, Xi.
Karelia is the region of Russia close to Finland. And these people are technically Karelians (and I’m ethnically part Karelian as my father is Karelian). Karelian historically forcefully were assimilated either into what is Finland or Russian Federation today. Karelian culture is near extinct.
We all better pray you’re right. If he does end up trying to invade Finland, it’ll be a global f*ckup
Can you expand?
Russia clashing with multiple nuclear powers. What could go wrong?
They’ve been held at bay for over a year by a smaller army with at best 20+ year old “B stock” conventional munitions often Jerry rigged to give half the capabilities they have when used as intended. Russia is a paper tiger who would get the Iraq revolutionary guards treatment inside 3 weeks if they start shit against the finns. And nobody outside Putin himself is suicidal enough to start throwing nukes.
You’re assuming Russia is going to be a rational actor, and that there are enough checks and balances to keep Putin from using nukes.
What is this, non credible defense? If you believe that, then nothing matters and all options are on the table including preemptive action, because you either assume that MAD is enough to stave off that stupidity or you dont. But…this is all bullshit propaganda and saber rattling so who really cares.
The claim is that it would be a global fuck up, maybe implying that it wouldn’t be limited to Russia/nato. Not that this wouldn’t be messy in and of itself, if Russia were to invade, I suspect they would be left out on their own by everyone else. They’re already struggling with Ukraine. I doubt anyone is going to want to step up and help them against NATO. They would probably lose a lot of the external but indirect support they are getting right now because countries would be hesitant to support a country against the us.
If it’s just “war is bad” then yeah, kind of a duh statement.
Hopefully everybody else would be sensible and nobody would take Russia’s side. Hopefully Russia wouldn’t randomly nuke other countries in their death throes.
But even if both of those things turn out fine the economic fallout (and other kinds of fallout if it goes nuclear) will be a global problem.
The idea is to set the strategic position such that your opponent knows that any war would be a failure, and therefore they never try it at all. Finland joining NATO is pretty much that.
This is a dangerous assumption when it comes to nukes, though. Not because it doesn’t work on its own, but because small mistakes have disastrous consequences for the entire planet. Works better for conventional warfare.
According to the Russian president, Finland was “dragged” into Nato.
And who did the dragging Vlady?
Exactly. Most didn’t want to join before Putin decided to invade Ukraine.
Putin managed to do what decades and decades of pro-NATO propaganda couldn’t. It’s almost impressive.
My perspective on war is so corrupted, at this point.
At one hand I want peace in Europe but on the other Hand I know Russia won’t stop until they are beaten so getting NATO involved might end this conflict faster.
I’ve wanted to fight Russia since they annexed Crimea. I knew it wouldn’t end there, and I was proven right. If they manage to obtain the natural resources of Ukraine then it will just keep escalating. The thing is, though, Russia has lost so many troops that they could easily be swept, right now. Now has never been a better time for either the EU or NATO to force Russia into demilitarization and reparations, as well as putting more economic pressure on the Chinese Dictatorship.
One thing I don’t want, though, is a direct conflict with China. Those fuckers need to try fixing their own shit, first. Idk if that makes me strong against the weak and weak against the strong, but there is simply too much to lose for all sides in that sort of conflict, unlike the very weakened and destabilized Russia.
I just feel hopeless tbh. It feels like diplomacy failed or was the wrong tool to begin with. You can’t argue with someone when their point is, “I want your land and you dead.” Every Compromise seems to be a loss at this situation. War is never good. But is not going to War even worse? I just don’t know anymore.
I’m in an even worse mental state over this, I see war with the violators as a clear logical conclusion with great benefit for future generations, but my state is going to sit on their asses and do nothing.
I appreciate a careful consideration of going to War but now it seems to set a dangerous precedent. And no one really know what will happen if Russia attacks, let’s say Poland or one of the Baltic states. Is NATO really ready for nuclear War? Or will they just shy away because it’s too risky? Maybe I’m just pessimistic about the whole thing but how could you be not?
NATO will retaliate with nuclear weapons if it detects that nuclear weapons have been launched by the enemy. So the response would be conventional.
Mutually Assured Destruction has been around for so long that nobody can possibly win in Nuclear War. In fact, Ukraine is a nation with Nuclear capacity, since they obtained 1,700+ Soviet Era nuclear weapons upon their independence in 1991. If Russia was going to pull the Nuclear War card they would have done so a long ass time ago.
If Russia Attacks a much stronger nation than Ukraine like Finland, then we know exactly what will happen. The will be absolutely decimated in land and population to say the least. Modern Russia was always a paper tiger but it has become even weaker with its failed invasion.
I’ve wanted to fight Russia since they annexed Crimea.
I’m sure you’ll be the first to volunteer for the front lines then.
Exactly. I hate when people lead off with that. It assumes their personal involvement in the war does anything other than make themselves feel less hopeless.
I understand their point from a geopolitical strategy perspective, but you always have to step back and ask yourself if you’d be willing to personally sign up. I would love to see Russia beaten and Putin ousted too, but I’m not willing to physically go do that, so I can’t exactly expect others to.
Not to mention, I’m old enough to know that it would never go as planned. We’d end up in forever war that kills thousands and thousands of innocent people and puts warlords in charge instead of a clean coup and instant transition to peaceful democracy.
Exactly for real, mate, I’d be digging those trenches. Didn’t expect that, did you? Thought you had the ultimate “Gotcha!” but no. I’m probably one of the few people in this comment section even fit to serve. Parrot more talking points, why not?
Oof.
Let us know when you join the army. We’ll be sure to applaud and throw a party for you.
Why would I join up to fight for oil? I just explained that the source of my frustration is the fight that I want to fight is not a priority of my nation.
Idk you seem pretty vocal about joining.
Goddamn right I would. Finally a cause worth fighting for, many Americans would view it as a dream come true.
Never going to happen. Russia has nukes, remember?
So does Ukraine, so why hasn’t Russia tried anything with them? Oh because there is no winning a Nuclear War, idiot.
Russia isn’t threatened behind their own borders by Ukraine. If a NATO army were to invade Russia however, and Putin has his back against the wall, then I’m not sure he wouldn’t order that button to be pressed.
I suppose he could threaten foreign nations who breach the borders, but it’s not accurate to say they aren’t currently threatened behind their own borders. Russia recently lost a major railway connecting to china to the war, and a few months ago there was a military coup that had Putin hiding in a bunker.
Fair point, but it’s still not quite the same as foreign soldiers on russian soil.
how many of them are correctly mantained and in working conditions?
1% would be enough
Maybe. The issue is we don’t know. Are our missile defense systems able to take down that 1%? How reliably? What if that’s 5% instead?
It’s all a game of probability, and all it takes is 1 missile to slip through. The only 0% chance is if no nukes are fired in the first place.
It’s really disappointing, isn’t it? Putin has been given every opportunity to stop the invasion or not even start it in the first place, and in ways that would help him save face. He’s rejected all of that and insists on only violence. The only response to that is returning the violence. Defending Ukraine is the most unquestionably morally correct military action I’ve seen in my life.
It also brings up an interesting observation – to have a peaceful society, you have to be willing to violently defend it. If another party insists you give into their demands or they’ll get violent, you have to eventually oppose them. Otherwise, if you constantly submit to them in the name of peace, they’ll eventually take away your peace. Just like a tolerant society must reject intolerant views, a peaceful society must be willing to defend themselves in war.
As long as we have the freedom to live in peace, we ought to.
But the freedom doesn’t come free of charge.
We should carve out the freedom to live in peace when we’re unable to.
If it weren’t for the existence of Russia’s massive fleet of nuclear weapons (which probably don’t actually work but it’s a hell of a risk) i’m sure NATO would have already got involved.
The only reasonable way I can see this war ending is if the internal politics of Russia decide Putin is now too much of a problem and deal with him themselves. Then whoever takes charge backs out of Ukraine because it’s not a winnable conflict.
I can’t see how anyone external can bring about an end to the conflict without risking massive escalation.
Getting NATO directly involved will not end but will rather escalate the conflict.
You can’t win a war, let alone against a nuclear state. This wouldn’t end well.
Is there any alternative? Ukraine can’t fight forever, and Russia won’t stop.
Poland, Finland, Germany and others are also no nuclear States. Will the threat of nuclear retaliation and counter-attack from their allies really stop Russia, or will they just wait a couple of years and then try this shit again with other states? Or do everyone needs to gearup again? I have no Idea anymore.
There is about 0 real solutions here, mostly just keeping war of attrition, which slowly drains Russian economy without reasonably allowing it to escalate. It is super bloody though, and it is not an option to choose willingly for either side.
The only thing dumber than NATO doing direct strikes on Russia is Russia doing direct strikes on NATO. This is why Ukraine not joining NATO is such a big talking point in negotiations. If Ukraine goes NATO, Russia won’t be able to exert any military control over it anymore.
We all don’t need a war with China and we don’t need a war with Russia… We need to allow the Russian people and Chinese people to have a full democracy not a fake democracy, not a flawed democracy, but a full democracy ( like Ireland for example).
We don’t need anymore killing or wars or any of it; really. We need to act like one earth and share resources and save the planet…
Democracies tend to get along with other democracies… That’s the only reason I bring it up 😉
We need to allow
Oh crap, I guess we didn’t realize we were sitting on the remote with the button that prevented that!
Honestly, I appreciate the “good vibes” tone here but it’s painfully naive in any practical sense.
Ye, “allow” / help.
If Russia doesn’t have intervention and doesn’t get reformed by other countries it will ALWAYS go back to its corrupt/crooked ways. If it’s closed off like North Korea it will absolutely be even more extremist then now. And now is pretty fucking bad already.
Think Japan and Germany… If they didn’t have the world get involved, they’d still be what they were in WW2.
I’m not sure there is a way to “help” other than war, unfortunately
Edit: which is a pretty crappy wayto help
Right and how are we going to encourage that state of affairs? Because we tried asking really nicely and that didn’t work we tried sanctions and that didn’t work and the people don’t seem that interested in rising up themselves so what do we do?
The options are war or to ignore it.
Rising up themselves?
They did and they also left the country. The ones who were able to anyways. The rest are brainwashed.
No one is ignoring anything and Russian army is at great fatigue…
I don’t know what the solution is. But new conflicts and wars aren’t a solution at all. Just a step closer to WW/// OR global genocide by nuclear weapons= mass extinction of humans … And probably a big loss of knowledge; history; culture ETC.
NTHX
Thanks for the downvotes. You all don’t think WW/// or nuclear war can happen/is possibilities?
>Be Putin
>Announce NATO expansion is no threat
>Pull most troops from the Finnish border, because holy fuck, Ukraine has turned the entire army you had at the start into sunflower fertalizer
>Have all the units you pulled from the Finnish border incur astronomical losses, because you want to present any win at the next election
>Declare Finland a threat again
>Move the broken units back up to the border
>ProfitIs Putin really that weak domestically to care about elections?
No.
I don’t think they even bother with elections. Russia is dictatorship not a democracy
They go through the motions, but yeah, it’s definitely all theater.
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What military? Drunk old men?
Forget article 5, if Russia thinks that Ukrainians are tough mothers, they (literally) won’t know what hit them in Finland.
Thick, dense forests with millions of trees. Moutainous regions. Snow forever. Lots of places a sniper pair could hide.
Wake up, Simo Hayha. Finland needs its protector once more.
They probably forgot about the Winter War.
And a thirst for death that would make even the most hardcore Peshmerga blush.
Even forget about snipers, Finland have one of the best artillery in Europe and a geography that’s almost made for creating bottlenecks for invaders
Let me guess, another “training exercise”?
Did they forget that Finland created Simo Heyha?
I was worried about this ever since Putin said “we have no plans of the sort” when Biden said Putin would invade a NATO country after Ukraine.
Lo and behold, troop build up on a border of a NATO country, which completely parallels the start of the Ukraine invasion.
I highly doubt those troops are for invading Finland. If there’s any NATO country that should be worried it’s probably Estonia. Especially if/when Trump gets elected president again.
Except of course for the little fact that Ukraine wasn’t in NATO.
People outside of Finland might forget that before Russia attacked Ukraine, they had several military bases around Finland, with plenty of troops in them. https://www.is.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000000728599.html from 2014 (in Finnish, sorry). For the Ukraine war, they emptied these bases. What they’re doing now is just restoring those bases to what the had been for several decades.
Putin is just plain lying, as he is every time his mouth moves. They have maintained a highly threatening stance against Finland ever since WW2.
Yeah, with Ukraine it was “routine training exercises”.
I guess this is classic troop rotation shenanigans?
Instead of rotating towards areas near Moscow, rotating towards St. Petersburg gives soldiers a break/training while pressuring Finland.
What pressuring? They’re scared to shit to point of hallucinating threats because they think because we have a prime-eval grudge against them.
If they magically would co-operate with us, drop their shit we would more than happy resume the trade with them.
it’s just a sneaky little recruitment campaign… sign up now boys, we’re forming a nice leisurely unit to sit and watch the Finns do nothing… don’t worry, we won’t accidentally send you to die like worms in a ditch in Ukraine…
Moving to open a second front. In the winter. At the home of the White Death. Surely nothing can possibly go wrong with this plan.
Russia will absolutely not invade Finland, even if it weren’t part of NATO and the EU.
Which is great news for the Russian soldiers who are going to be stationed there. Not going to the meat grinder instead.
Didn’t they do that twice?
Only once that I know of, and that was arguably a stalemate even though the USSR took part of Karelia. The Finns also learned their lesson there, and today (enormous network of bunkers, largest artillery force in Europe, F-35s on order, military reserve is 20% of the population) they are ready.
Plus, of course, they are EU members (which has a mutual defense clause) and NATO (whose Article 5 is well-known)
Only once that I know of
It was like one war with a pause in the middle of it rather than two distinct conflicts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuation_WarOK, that’s the “one” I was thinking of. I was confused as to what the other might be, since Finland and the USSR were born at the same time.
You’re probably right, but that was exactly what people were commenting while russian troops were officially still just doing an exercise near the Ukrainian border. Putin is a madman and capable of unexpected crazy behaviour
I suppose, but attacking NATO would be a whole other level of crazy. The biggest winner there would be Ukraine.
If Russia triggers article 5 Ukraine will be a smoking crater just like the rest of the planet
Well no actually. US intelligence was basically telling the entire world that the invasion was 100 percent going to happen. How do you not remember that?
I don’t because idk who they told it to. Not me (I was just concerned it would happen by myself) and obviosly not the many people who were still commenting it would never happen while russian soldiers had already been reported crossing the Ukrainian border
Correct. You have to be utterly delusional to think otherwise. This is just Putin posturing for domestic consumption.
That’s what I thought about the threats to invade Ukraine. It was such a stupid idea that surely someone as intelligent as Putin wouldn’t do it. But then he did. We can no longer assume he’ll act rationally.
That doesn’t mean he is going to invade, but it does mean we need to take his threat seriously.
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War , death, poverty, murder, disease and rape are never a joke my friendly friend
This is a prime example of Russo-Finnish relations. PERKELE!
If NATO get involved then China will.
