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Cake day: January 13th, 2024

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  • In the latest version I found of Nate Silver’s model (not 538), he has Ohio coming in at 52.4% for Trump and 43.6% for Harris, an 8.8% spread. I did not dig deeper to find the dates or particular polls from Ohio he’s basing that on.

    However, based on these numbers, he is likely modelling that Trump wins Ohio in 90%+ of outcomes to Harris’s <5% of outcomes.

    This is the same way he spoke to his model in previous elections. It wasn’t that Hillary was expected to win 80-90% of the popular vote or electoral college just weeks before the 2016 election, it was that his model had her winning that percentage of the outcomes when he ran the model.



  • I got a hail of down votes just two weeks ago for saying Democrats are appealing to the Republicans 10-20 years ago, and now here we are.

    Couldn’t the campaign be about championing progressive change on popular issues rather than capitulating to Republican narratives on immigration and crime, and being “honored” by the endorsement of war criminals?

    And who is writing shit like “most lethal fighting force” into her convention acceptance speech, while Trump is out there on the road saying no more wars. I don’t believe him, but plenty of moms and dads of soldiers will.











  • Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts.

    Determining whether and under what circumstances such a prosecution may proceed requires careful assessment of the scope of Presidential power under the Constitution. The nature of that power requires that a former President have some immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts during his tenure in office. At least with respect to the President’s exercise of his core constitutional powers, this immunity must be absolute.

    The President’s authority as Commander in Chief is a core constitutional power, as granted in Article II, Section 2. This example is not hyperbolic.




  • The primaries happened l. It’s over. He’s who we’re stuck with

    With these leaked conversations from Pelosi, Schumer, and Jefferies, it doesn’t seem like the party thinks he’s the candidate they’re stuck with. Seems even the leadership feels they were kept in the dark about Biden’s current state through the primaries.

    My question is, who is ride or die for Biden at this point? The people I know on the left are voting against Trump, rather than for Biden or even for a Democrat, and have said they would vote for just about any Democrat with a pulse to beat Trump.

    Is it the moderates? Maybe in 2020, when Biden was the familiar voice of reason running against a proven conman with four years of endless headlines of corruption and destruction of norms. But that’s not what people have stored in their recent memory this time around, and it’s not the Biden we have now. He can’t string together a lucid rebuttal to the practiced silver tongue that seems to have half of America fooled.

    This late in the game, the only way I see the Democrats beating Trump is if they win the same moderate voters who were sick of the uncertainty and disruptions of the Trump presidency, and Biden can’t seem to coherently communicate the dangers of returning to that anymore. The Democrats need to put forward a candidate that remembers both the start of their sentences and points they were trying to make by the time they reach the end, even after 8pm.





  • "Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness” are specifically listed an unalienable rights in America’s Declaration of Independence and could be seen as the origin for many other “American values”.

    The phrase itself is quite similar to John Locke’s "life, liberty, and estate” from Two Treatises of Government written nearly a century earlier. You can look to Voltaire, Hume, or really any other Enlightenment period philosopher or writer of the time to see that the founding fathers were a product of that time, and that the ideas of the century or so leading up to American independence are enshrined as values or rights in Declaration of Independence, Constitution, and Bill of Rights.