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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • But there isn’t a single election, there are 51 separate elections, whose results are combined in a way which gives Republicans an advantage. I will continue to maintain the election will be close until Harris starts to pull even in states like Florida and Texas. Even if she doesn’t win those, if those states are closer to even that’s an indication that Harris ought to win all the toss-up states.

    But unless that happens, I will assume that the election is a toss-up. And not just the election itself, but also the post-gane show of certification.


  • Most states (maybe even all of them by now) offer a non-driver ID, which has just as much validity as ID as a drivers license, but isn’t valid for driving.

    All that ID does is prove residence, though, it doesn’t prove citizenship. Most first-time applicants will also have to submit a birth certificate or other document proving citizenship. The USA has no other national document that proves citizenship. This service is for passport renewals, presumably the first time you apply for a passport you will still need to show up in person, with your documents.





  • NYT says this switch to pagers has been recent, after the Oct 7 attacks last year, when Hezbollah suspected that Israel was spying on the cell network, and using it to locate targets for strikes. So all these pagers got distributed to Hezbollah-affiliated people in short order . This system doesn’t use commercial networks, and has been called a “closed” network by the NYT.

    If all that is true, then that means anyone with one of these closed-network pagers got it from being involved with Hezbollah in the first place.




  • Trump may have a hard ceiling of “likely voters”, but my fear is that there are a lot of unlikely/“low information” voters that are backing Trump.

    They are simply not paying attention to anything but their paycheck, which is not rising as fast as prices are. They remember all the chaos of the Trump Presidency, but also remember when they could afford rent.

    The same thing happened in 2020. I keep reminding people that 12 million more people voted for Trump in 2020 than 2016. Those people looked at all the chaos of the Trump Presidency and said “Yup! We need more of that”, after not caring 4 years prior.

    Polls don’t matter, votes do. And thanks to the EC, votes in certain zip codes are more impactful than others. Harris not only needs to get good turnout, but get good turnout in the right zip codes to win this.