

Part 2:
Productivity Illusion (perception vs reality)
- METR RCT: Experienced OSS devs were 19% slower with AI; 39-point perception gap (believed 20% faster)
- McKinsey 2025: 46% time savings on routine tasks but <10% on complex work (4,500 devs)
- Sonar State of Code 2026: 96% of devs don’t fully trust AI code; only 48% always verify before commit; 53% say it “appears correct but is unreliable”
- Stack Overflow 2025: 66% top frustration = code that’s “almost right but not quite”
- Stack Overflow Blog Jan 2026: 45% of developers say debugging AI-generated code takes longer than writing it themselves
- Byteiota 2026: Trust in AI tools fell from 40% (2024) to 29% (2025); 96% believe AI code is not fully correct
- Smarter Articles 2026: Devs with Copilot introduced a 41% increase in bugs, with no reduction in burnout risk
Churn, Replacement & Survival
- Faros AI: 65% survival rate for AI code vs 92% human (35% gets silently replaced)
- Faros AI: +98% PRs merged but +91% review time, +9% bugs, DORA metrics flat (10,000+ devs)
- Kunal Ganglani 2026: 40% of new AI-assisted code is rewritten within two weeks, vs 33% pre-AI
- New Relic 2026: 74% of tech leaders report ≥25% of AI code requires significant post-deployment rework; 82% have suffered at least one major production failure caused by AI code
- Lightrun 2026: 43% of AI-generated code changes require manual debugging in production after passing QA and staging
Production Impact & Outages
- CloudBees 2026: 81% of enterprise leaders report increased production issues from AI code
- Amazon / CNBC Mar 2026: Amazon convenes “deep dive” meeting over outages caused by GenAI-assisted changes; “high blast radius” incidents since Q3 2025
- The New Stack Mar 2026: Amazon mandates senior engineer sign-off on all AI-assisted code changes after multiple outages
- Fortune Mar 2026: Amazon retail website crashes from “inaccurate advice” an AI agent pulled from a stale wiki; 4 Sev-1 incidents in one week
Deskilling
- Brains show less activity when completing tasks with LLMs compared to completing tasks with search or completing tasks without digital help.
- Developers who use early-2025 LLMs reported higher subjective performance, but were measured to have lower objective performance. This gap between subjective and objective performance was considered notable.
- In an Anthropic study, learners using LLMs demonstrated lower learning rates on average compared to learners not using LLMs.
- A recent study uses the term “cognitive surrender” to describe the way humans tend to offload key critical thinking skills onto LLMs, even when the output is wrong.
- A paper entitled “AI Assistance Reduces Persistence and Hurts Independent Performance” from April 2026 by academics from MIT, Oxford, UCLA, and Carnegie Mellon showed alarming evidence that performing a variety of tasks with the help of AI for only 10 minutes causes “inpaired unassisted performance and reduced persistence”. The researchers noted that “although AI assistance improves performance in the short-term, people perform significantly worse without AI and are more likely to give up”; they also pointed out that “these findings are particularly concerning because persistence is foundational to skill acquisition and is one of the strongest predictors of long-term learning”.



You have a good point, actually 🤣
But people prefer to follow the one who “knows everything” and that never shows any kind of doubt or insecurity.
C’mon, precisely because they’re in the “Dunning-Kruger” sector of the bell curve is why they can have a big influence in a lot of people.