Former President Donald Trump's presidential campaign team said he has raked in nearly $20 million in three weeks, $7.1 million of which came in after his mugshot was released.
  • jarfil@beehaw.org
    14·
    1 year ago

    (knowing how statistics massaging works, maybe I shouldn’t even ask, but…)

    Is that 20% of “all” black voters, or 20% of “republican” black voters?

    • LiiTheBaddie@beehaw.org
      1·
      1 year ago

      Under the picture I can kinda make out it saying the poll was of 1002 registered voters. It most likely was black fox news viewers. Another question should be why did the 2nd poll only add up to 81%?

      • jarfil@beehaw.org
        4·
        1 year ago

        Yeah. My guess is:

        Top percentages are the vote results from 2020, where about 8% (I’ve seen sites talking about 7.5%) of black voters voted Republican/Trump in the Presidential elections.

        Bottom percentages seem to be from a poll for the Primaries, meaning:

        • 20% of polled black voters said Trump, 61% said Biden, and the remaining 19% said something else (some other candidate, be it Democrat or Republican)
        • …but, voting in the Primaries, changes state by state whether you can vote to a candidate from a party you’re not registered for, so…
        • 20% of registered/allowed Republican black voters said Trump, 61% of registered/allowed Democrat voters said Biden, the remaining 19% were either not registered to vote in the Primaries, or registered with a different party, or chose a different candidate.

        Given that in 2020 Trump got 46.8% votes, a 20% of that would be, around 9.3%.

        That in turn, could mean:

        • Trump would be “killing it” among black voters… by going from 8% to 9.3%
        • The Republican black voters have gone from 17% to 20%
        • The total voters for a Republican president have gone from 46.8% to… anywhere between 39.8% and 54.4%… and 117% ⁉️

        Or… a mix of all the above, which gives no information at all 😆