My theory on tipping points with ocean to air temperatures is that El ninos cause a step up in air temperatures now. This happened in 2015/2016, where air temperatures stayed above 2015 levels every year afterwards, even if 2016 record stayed up for a long period. 2023/2024 was another step up. Ocean and air temperatures help each other set summer records, and that ocean heat persists into fall/winter to help moderate winter air temperatures, that makes spring have a head start on new summer records, or at least keep the new el-nino set baseline, until another step up the next el-nino.
My theory on tipping points with ocean to air temperatures is that El ninos cause a step up in air temperatures now. This happened in 2015/2016, where air temperatures stayed above 2015 levels every year afterwards, even if 2016 record stayed up for a long period. 2023/2024 was another step up. Ocean and air temperatures help each other set summer records, and that ocean heat persists into fall/winter to help moderate winter air temperatures, that makes spring have a head start on new summer records, or at least keep the new el-nino set baseline, until another step up the next el-nino.